Filter by Decision Type — Regret Probability Calculator Regret Probability Calculator

Use the filter first. It keeps your mind clear and the data easy to read. The Regret Probability Calculator groups hero picks, romance picks, end picks, and key ep picks. That lets you focus on the part of the run you care about most. I start with hero picks, then move to romance and end picks in order.

I also use the filter to slow down. If I scroll all picks at once, I miss the key gate. If I focus on one type, I can see the regret gap fast. This helps me set a plan for the next ep and keeps me from a rash pick.

The Regret Probability Calculator is best when you use it on a fresh beat. Right after a talk, the line is still in your mind. That makes your read true, and the regret data makes sense. A stale read can feel off, so I keep my use close to the ep where the pick is made.

Waterboy vs Phenomanan — Regret Probability Calculator Regret Probability Calculator

This pick is about raw power and late run ease. Waterboy has a soft story feel, yet the late game can feel thin. Phenomanan brings raw power but can add love heat if you chase Blazer. I use the regret data as a quick check: the low regret rate on Phenomanan means most players feel safe with that pick.

If you love story tone, Waterboy can still work. Yet you should plan for more risk in Ep 6 and Ep 8. The tool makes that risk clear, so you can plan a team build to cover the gap. If you want clean wins, Phenomanan is a calm pick.

I treat this as a long run pick. It has no easy fix later. If you pick Waterboy, commit to the story pace and run more safe lines in late eps. If you pick Phenomanan, plan for a bit of love heat and keep the team tone calm. Both can work, yet the tool makes the cost clear.

Blonde Blazer vs Invisigal Romance

This is a tone pick as much as a love pick. Blazer is warm and clear, with a clean pace. Invisigal is tense and bold, with a late, hard test in Ep 7. The regret data shows Blazer has a lower regret rate, yet Invisigal can give a deep end if you hold the key beats.

I pick Blazer if I want a safe, warm run with low stress. I pick Invisigal if I want a hard, raw arc and I am ready to slow down on the Ep 5 bar beat and the Ep 7 confess. The tool helps me spot those key gates so I do not drift into a fail by mistake.

Both lanes can hit a great end. The main risk is that Invisigal has more hard gates. If you know you like a slow, soft pace, Blazer can feel more fair. If you love tension and a high pay at the end, Invisigal can feel worth the risk.

Romance Ending vs Professional Ending

This is a heart pick. The romance end gives a warm, full close, while the pro end keeps the team focus and lets you plan a clean run. The data shows romance has low regret and high joy for most runs. The pro end has a solid joy rate too, yet some players miss the bond beats.

I pick romance on a first run since it shows the full bond arc. I pick pro on a later run when I want a clean team lead end and more run flex. The tool helps by showing that regret gap, so I can avoid a pick that feels off for my play mood.

The key is to line this pick with your pace. If you love slow bond beats, the romance end will feel right. If you want more task play and less love heat, the pro end can feel clean. The tool read makes that split clear.

Forgive or Reject Invisigal After Betrayal

This is a raw, high weight pick. Forgive keeps the love lane and opens more end paths. Reject cuts the lane and locks out the Unity end. The regret data shows forgive has far less regret for most runs. That makes it a safe pick if you are on the romance or Unity path.

I only reject if I plan a pro end and want a hard, cold tone. It can still feel right for a strict role play. Yet the cost is real, and the tool makes that cost clear. If you are not sure, I lean forgive and keep more end lanes open for Ep 8.

The best use of the tool here is to pause, read the regret gap, and pick with a calm mind. This is the kind of pick that can cause a full re-run if you act fast. A slow read keeps the end you want.

Episode 5 Bar Scene Romance Checkpoint

The bar scene is a gate beat. If you move close, you keep romance live. If you stay far, the romance lane can fail even if you locked the path in Ep 4. The regret data is stark here, which makes this one of the most clear picks on the list.

I treat this beat like a must hit when I want any romance end. If I aim for a pro end, I can skip it with no stress. The tool shows that most regret comes from a miss, not from the move close pick itself.

This is also a good time to slow down and read the line twice. A calm read keeps your lane safe and avoids a full reset. The regret gap here is so big that I trust the data and act with care.

📊 Methodology

This block explains how the data is read. I keep it short so you can trust the numbers. The Regret Probability Calculator is based on player polls, not a guess. I also use a basic guide on risk reads to remind me how to read a wide gap in rates.

How We Calculate Regret Probability

Each regret rate is from a simple poll: “Do you regret this pick?” The rate is the share of yes votes. That is the full math. It keeps the read fair and clear. A high regret rate means a high share of players felt a miss. A low rate means most felt good with the pick.

I like this method since it matches how a real run feels. You do not need a huge model to know if a pick hurts more than it helps. The goal is not to force a choice, but to show the risk you take so you can plan the rest of the run with care.

I also scan the regret gap between two picks. A wide gap means the player group saw a clear edge. A small gap means both picks can work with the right pace. That is the key read I take from this block.

Data Collection Period

Data was pooled from launch up to late 2025. Each poll had a clear sample size and a clear pick. The range is large, so the rates hold a fair shape even with new runs. The goal is not a perfect rate, but a stable read of what tends to cause regret.

A large sample tends to smooth odd runs. A small sample can still help if the regret gap is big. This is why the tool shows both sample size and gap. It helps you read the data with calm and not with fear.

I treat fresh data as a sign, not a law. If new notes show a diff tone, I still keep the old data in mind. It gives me a sense of what most runs feel like, even as new play styles show up.

Regret vs Satisfaction

Satisfaction is just the flip of regret. If regret is 20%, joy is 80%. That is a clean read. The tool uses both so you can see the full view. A pick can still have a high joy rate even if regret is not low.

I read this as mood fit. If the joy list fits your style, a higher regret rate may still be fine. If the joy list feels off, even a low regret rate may feel wrong. The point is to match the pick to your tone, not to obey a stat.

Recommendation Confidence

Confidence is a mix of sample size, gap size, and how split the votes are. A high rate means the data has a clear lean. A low rate means the picks are close and you should lean on style.

I use the rate as a tie break. If I like both picks, a high rate tips me to the safer lane. If I feel a strong story pull, I may still take the high risk lane, yet I do so with eyes open. That is the best use of this data.

“A high rate means the path is safe, not that it is the only path.”

💡 Tips for Using This Calculator

Use the tips as a short play guide. The goal is not to lock you into one pick, but to help you see the cost of each lane. I read the regret gap, scan the joy list, then pick the path that fits my tone. This keeps the run clean and stops a full reset after a hard miss.

The best tip is to avoid panic. A high regret pick can still be fun if you aim for that tone. A low regret pick can still feel flat if it does not fit your style. Use the tool to align style and risk, then play with calm and intent.

I also keep one rule: if a pick locks a path for good, I slow down and read twice. That is the fastest way to cut regret. A slow read beats a fast click, every time.

• Read the gap: a wide gap is a loud sign.
• Check the joy list: see if the tone fits you.
• Slow on lock picks: those picks last.